The key question here is by how much? NIO is supposed to start deliveries of two new vehicles during this quarter, and as I said in my previous article, management has guided to reaching 30,000 units a month either late this year or very early in 2023. Management said in its July 2022 release that it expects to accelerate vehicle production in the following months of the third quarter of this year. Q3 of last year saw supply chain issues that resulted in a guidance reduction, the following two quarters saw production lines down for upgrades at times, and then Q2 of this year saw major issues due to Covid shutdowns. In Q2 2021 some of the lost May production supposedly came back in June, but the end result was still a sequential quarterly delivery increase that wasn't that impressive. This is the 5th quarter in a row where at least one month saw some sort of significant disruption. It just seems right now that there is always some sort of major issue at NIO that's impacting deliveries. When adding in production of the Model 3, Tesla is approaching a million vehicles per year run rate in Shanghai, while NIO is struggling to top 10,000 units a month. Also, key electric vehicle rival Tesla ( TSLA) is reportedly able to produce 2,000 Model Y SUVs a day at its Chinese plant now, which is remarkable growth in less than two years. Thus, this was only the company's 5th best month for deliveries, and the July 2022 figure didn't even beat the one from September 2021 despite production lines seeing multiple upgrades since. Don't forget, the company signed a major agreement over 14 months ago to get to 20,000 units of monthly production, and it also has an extra model available this year that it didn't have last July. ![]() Production of ET7 and EC6 models were constrained by the supply of casting parts. While that mid to high 20s growth rate seems nice as a headline, it doesn't tell the entire story. NIO Monthly Deliveries (Company Releases) In the graphic below, you can see NIO's monthly delivery history going back to late 2019. The year over year growth rate of nearly 27% did come in ahead of peer Li Auto ( LI), which grew by 21%, but both of these names significantly trailed XPeng ( XPEV) which saw 43% growth. On Monday, the company released its July delivery figure, and the result was another disappointment that makes me wonder a bit about this short term growth trajectory.įor the seventh calendar month of 2022, NIO announced that it had delivered 10,052 vehicles. Between the launch of new models and additional production capacity coming online, expectations were calling for a huge jump in vehicle sales and total revenues. ![]() Peer Li Auto ( LI) delivered 10,422 Li ONEs in July 2022, +21% Y/Y and XPEV ( XPEV) delivered 11,524 Smart EVs in July 2022, +43% Y/Y.Back in June, I detailed how Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO ( NYSE: NIO) was set for massive growth later this year.The company is planning to launch a third electric vehicle brand to cover the low to mid-range market under RMB 200,000, in addition to the NIO brand, and a sub-brand codenamed ALPS.Based on preliminary estimates, China's July retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to be around 450,000 units, up 102.5% Y/Y, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said in a report released July 22.The company has been working closely with supply chain partners as the production of the ET7 and the EC6 in July 2022 was constrained and expects to accelerate vehicle production in the following months of the third quarter of 2022.Cumulative deliveries reached 227,949 as of July 31, 2022.A look at NIO's monthly delivery trend:.On YTD basis, the company delivered 60,879 vehicles, up 22% Y/Y.The deliveries consisted of 7,579 premium smart electric SUVs, and 2,473 premium smart electric sedans.
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